America’s Most Brilliant Housing Bubble, May Update: Mania on the Eve of St. Molybdenum Mortgage Rates

When mortgage rates are averaging 3.2% to 4.2%, buy in panic just before the big spike.

go through Wolf Richter for wolf street.

Home price data released today by the S&P CoreLogic Home Price Index represents the average closed home sales over the past three months. access to public records January, February, and March, reflecting deals made a few weeks ago, around December, January, and February, are funded by mortgages pre-approved prior to that, and rates are locked in from the time of pre-approval.

These rate locks are based on rates in effect roughly from November to February, when the average 30-year fixed rate was between 3.2% and 4.2%, with most of the time below 3.8% (green box in the chart). These are the interest rates that fund home purchases as reflected in today’s house price index.

There are already a number of indicators that the existing home sales and new home sales market is struggling at the current St. Molybdenum mortgage rate of over 5%, including Existing-home sales plummet, inventories rise and New home sales fall and record inventory surges.

but the data is S&P CoreLogic Case – Shiller IndeThe x, released today and shown in the creepy chart below, predates these changes in the market by a few months, but reflects a period of frantic scramble to lock in and buy a home before mortgage rates spike further, any home, any price , before the rate lock in previous months expired.

Crazy competition back then.

Released today, the “March” National Case-Shiller Home Price Index (the average number of completed transactions that entered the public record in January, February and March) surged 2.6% from the previous month and a record 20.6% year-over-year increase. year.

San Diego Metro: “March” (the average of January, February, March) single-family home prices rose 3.7% month-over-month and 29.6% year-over-year. An index value of 417 means that house prices have jumped 317% since the index was set at 100 in January 2000.

This price increase is equivalent to 4.5 times CPI inflation since 2000 (+70.3%). After a massive surge since January 2000, and despite the slump in between, San Diego remains at the top of the list for the most glorious housing bubble, followed by Los Angeles (+310%) and Incredible Frenzy in Seattle (+301%):

All the charts here are in the same scale as the San Diego index.

Los Angeles Metro: The Case-Shiller index surged 3.3% in March from February and was up 23.2% from a year earlier. At an index value of 410, home prices have soared 310% since January 2000, albeit with a slump in the middle, making the L.A. metro the second-best real estate bubble on this list:

Seattle Subway: Home prices surged 5.6 per cent this month, bringing the two-month gain to 10.2 per cent. Compared with the same period last year, the index surged 27.7%. Since January 2000, house prices have surged 302%, 4.3 times CPI inflation rate:

It’s house price inflation.

The Case-Shiller index is based on a “sale pair” method, which compares the price of a home when it sold in the current period with the price it sold for before.It tracks how many dollars are purchased identical Over time the house (method). The index includes adjustments for home improvements. By measuring the purchasing power of the dollar to buy the same home, the index is a measure of house price inflation.

San Francisco Bay Area (Five counties including San Francisco, parts of Silicon Valley, parts of the East Bay, and parts of the North Bay): Home prices rose 4.3% for the month and 24.1% year over year:

Miami Metro: The index surged 3.6% this month and 32.0% year-over-year, the fastest since November 2005, near the top of the housing bubble 1, and then the epic housing bubble burst:

Tampa Metro: Home prices soared 3.7% this month and 34.8% year over year, setting a record for the Tampa metro and easily outpacing the wild surge before Tampa’s epic housing bubble burst:

Phoenix Metro: Home prices soared 3.0% this month to 32.4% year-on-year, just shy of last month’s record year-on-year gain and the ninth straight month of over 30%. Year-over-year peak:

Portland Metro: Up 2.9% for the month and 19.3% year-over-year:

Boston Subway: +2.6% this month, +14.5% year-on-year:

Washington, D.C. Subway: +2.9% this month, +12.9% year-on-year:

Denver Metro: +4.5% this month, +23.7% year-on-year:

Las Vegas Metro: Up 3.1% for the month and 28.5% year-over-year:

Dallas Metro: It was up 4.3% for the month and 30.7% year-over-year, a record high:

New York subway (The broad market within commuting distance of New York City, which Case-Shiller calls “New York commuters,”): Up 1.6% this month and 13.7% year over year. Since January 2000, the Metro has an index value of 263 and house price inflation is 163%, 2.3 times the CPI inflation rate.

The remaining metros in the Case-Shiller Index of 20 metropolitan areas—Atlanta, Charlotte, Chicago, Cleveland, Detroit, and Minneapolis—have all experienced substantial home price increases since 2000, but are not the same as these most. Compared to the brilliant real estate bubble, it doesn’t quite fit here, so they don’t qualify for this standout list.

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